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Articles by Georgi Gotev

Bosnia like Nagorno Karabakh, Serbia and Kosovo like FRG and GDR?

Posted by Georgi Gotev on 15/03/10

I was quite impressed by the statement made by Hido Biščević, secretary-general of the Regional Cooperation Council for South Eastern Europe (RCC) in an interview, that the political situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina is “extremely worrisome” and now appears to be turning into a “dormant frozen conflict”.

“To be very honest, I think the political situation in BiH at the moment is very worrisome, extremely worrisome. It appears to be a dormant, frozen conflict,” said Biščević, implicitly comparing the situation in the former Yugoslav country with unresolved conflicts in the post-Soviet space, such as Transnistria or Nagorno-Karabakh.

I asked Mr. Biščević if Moscow was not involved, as whenever we speak of a frozen conflict, Russia is not very far.

“I would not say that anyone is interfering, but there are obviously very different positions throughout the international community”, he answered, adding that the Russians for example, who do not recognise Kosovo, “have an outlook based on their own foreign policy issues”.

Another thing that stuck me from this intsrview was the comparison between Serbia and its former province Kosovo, now independent, with Germany in the recent past.

Maybe some remember that from 1949 until the 1970s the Federal Republic of Germany considered East Germany, or the German Democtratic Republic, as an illegaly constituted state. FRG at that time even severed diplomatic relations with all countries which recognised GDR, except the USSR. Only with chancellor Willy Brandt and his Ostpolitik in the 1970s normal diplomatic relations were established, allowing the two Germanies to obtain UN membership.

History apparently shows us that in worse circumstances, more difficult issues have been solved.

You can see Mr. Biščević speaking to EurActiv below:

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Is it a good idea to partly merge Nabucco and South Stream?

Posted by Georgi Gotev on 11/03/10

South Stream and Nabucco, the two competing gas pipeline projects supported by Russia and the EU respectively, should merge the two pipelines for part of the route, the chief executive of Italy’s Eni, the Gazprom partner in South Stream said.

It appears that the idea has come from the bank sector, who wants to reduce costs and make sure that both projects are sustainable. It also looks like the Commission knew something about it. Recently, when it was announced that Romania gave Gazprom all the documentation relevant for building the South Stream pipeline through Romanian territory, the move probably decided the future route of the joint pipe.

Few details have emerged, but if Nabucco can still bring gas from sources other than Russia, the merging of the pipes on EU territory should not be a problem, as I see it. But I’m not a gas expert.

Any other views or insider information?

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Western Balkans’ regional cooperation - mission impossible?

Posted by Georgi Gotev on 08/03/10

The diplomatic phrase ‘Western Balkans” largely cover the countries of the former Yugoslavia, which engaged in fratricide wars before deciding that they want to be together again, in the European Union.

The EU says that regional cooperation is a prerequisite for advancing on to the road toward accession. The logic is that one should get along well with his closest neighbours, before envisaging closer relations with a broader family.

Kosovo appears the most difficult test case. The former Serbian province has first to be able to reconcile within its own borders. But instead, its Northern, Serbian-populated part apparently sees a different future for itself. This is a dangerous game. Changing borders in the Balkans is like playing Russian roulette. By the way, Russians are never very far and appear to enjoy the show.

Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) is a bigger problem in terms of population and territory covered, if not in substance as well. The three main entities of BiH apparently do not envisage being parts of the same country. Fifteen years of expensive international conflict management in BiH appear as a mountain that has given birth to a mouse.

Fresh initiatives to boost regional cooperation appear contradictory. I also suspect that they are not very inspired.

Anyone has fresh, bright ideas about the Western Balkans? Sometime ago Erhard Busek, one of the politicians who knows the region best said the only solution was if the Western Balkans joined the EU as a bloc. This is in total contradiction with Commission policies. But maybe he is right?

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Was the 2007 enlargement a mistake?

Posted by Georgi Gotev on 05/03/10

This question was recently raised at round tables held in Paris and Berlin.

My short answer is no. Bulgaria and Romania are countries with a more difficult transition, but keeping them out for longer would have been a worse choice. I didn’t say a worst mistake.

Let’s not forget that Sofia and Bucharest were promised accession on 1 January 2007 s couple of years before. Just imagine the popular resentment.

Some people argue that the EU made a mistake in promising accession dates to Bulgaria and Romania, and this is why no dates are mentioned any more for no other candidate, even Croatia. Also, Bulgaria and Romania joined as a group, and since nobody at the Commission mentions any longer group admittance in the EU club.

What I would like to remind is that the accession of Bulgaria and Romania was unavoidable from one particular moment. Bulgaria agreed to close four nuclear reactors of its Kozloduy nuclear power plant, which was to a great extent a deal linked to its accession on 1 January 2007. I remember how anxious the Romanian ambassador in Sofia was at the time, because any setback with Bulgaria would have complicated Romania’s accession prospects too.

Accession is always a deal. I realise I’m in a slight contradiction with Commission officials who say it’s about meeting the criteria.

English, Enlargement & Neighbours
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Dutch anti-Islamists to stop EU enlargement?

Posted by Georgi Gotev on 05/03/10

The Dutch extreme-right Freedom Party, led by controversial anti-Islamist Geert Wilders, looks set to make large electoral gains at the upcoming general election in the Netherlands. And it could well become part of the next government coalition.

Even the outgoing government of Jan Peter Balkenende was creating enough obstacles for further enlargement. Dutch opposition to unblocking a trade accord with Serbia is just an example.  The Hague was not happy with the 2007 enlargement with Bulgaria and Romania either.

But just imagine how positions could become even more radical with Geert Wilders in command? This could even affect Croatia, who has has outstanding problems with the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY), or Iceland, as talks have collapsed between Reykjavik and the Hague over the repayment of Dutch savers in the bankrupt Icesave.

Wilders could stop enlargement for several years to come. I wander what the consequences could be. One extremism can only breed another.

English, Enlargement & Neighbours
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EU more generous with Yanukovich?

Posted by Georgi Gotev on 02/03/10

I find it weird. Yanukovich, whom the Western press tagged as pro-Russian, is reportedly getting more support from Brussels compared to his pro-NATO predecessor Yushchenko.

In any case, this is a good development, as I see it. the EU has to be more explicit on what it can offer to Ukraine. And if Russia raises the stakes, then even Barroso can be more daring. As EuRoman asks, will Europe prepare for Ukraine?

English, Enlargement & Neighbours
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I want to see the list of ’swaps’

Posted by Georgi Gotev on 24/02/10

Bulgarian agriculture minister Miroslav Naydenov described the ’swaps’ as “the biggest theft” in Bulgaria’s tormented transition from communism to a market economy.

I agree with him.

Under the so-called ’swaps’, local authorities authorise the exchange of privately-owned low-rated land with state-owned parcels located in the most attractive tourist locations.

Those who benefited from the scheme were usually close to the government, and the average profit rate from the operation is estimated at 1 vs. 100. Some of the profits from ’swaps’ have reportedly been used to fill party slush funds.

The swaps would have gone unnoticed in Brussels had the European Commission not considered some 300 such operations as unauthorised state aid and threatened to impose huge fines on Bulgaria. Sofia is still putting in place a strategy to respond to Brussels, as the fine may amount to 750 million if all the ’swaps’ since the country’s accession are examined.

What I would like to see is the list of those who benefited from the ’swaps’, with their names. Some of my colleagues in Bulgaria are trying to obtain it. Without success so far.

English, Enlargement & Neighbours
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Macedonia has a window of opportunity

Posted by Georgi Gotev on 17/02/10

Macedonia has a “window of opportunity” to solve its long-standing name dispute with Greece, Enlargement Commissioner Štefan Füle said in front of me and other journalists today (17 February). However, he stressed that external help could not act as a substitute for political will in Athens and Skopje.

“It takes two to tango,” said Füle.

I hope Skopje and Athens will get the message. Especially Skopje, because so many years have been lost, so many opportunities.

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Borissov and the Octopus

Posted by Georgi Gotev on 12/02/10

“It’s us or them” Borissov said. These words speak for themselves.

Some people in Bulgaria say that Borissov and the thug he is dealing with at present, Alexey Petrov, are very much the same. In fact, they have had a joint business and share a passion for karate.

However many Bulgarians, at least those who voted for Borissov last summer, consider that only a man who comes from the shadowy circles can deal with the mafia Octopus. Borissov is ambitious, he is apparently wealthy and therefore he can dedicate himself to saving the nation, they believe.

Apparently the EU sees it also this way. Does Brussels have any other choice?

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Ukraine: the Beauty and the Beast?

Posted by Georgi Gotev on 08/02/10

Yanukovich appears to have won, not least because outgoing president Yuschenko played his cards against Tymoschenko.

I prefer to call those players by their names, instead of adding ‘tags’ to them. The Western coverage of the Ukraine elections appears rather simplistic, with Tymoshenko portrayed as strongly pro-European and Yanukovich - as a Kremlin puppet.

I am not sure about Tymoshenko’s credentials. I think that this time, both candidates were quite suitable for Moscow, and the Kremlin could afford the luxury not to directly support any of them.

As long as the EU will be unable to make ‘an offer’ to Ukraine, as it did for ten East European countries who already joined and for the Western Balkans, no pro-European political force in Ukraine would be credible.

English, Enlargement & Neighbours
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