June 28, 2016
In the most famous song of The Eagles, “Hotel California”, Don Henley sings “You can check out anytime you like, but you can never leave”.
This is not a song about the EU, but it could be. I don’t believe the UK will leave the EU. With the Brexit referendum, they have just checked out for a while, but I don’t imagine that they will formally leave the Union.
The British diplomacy is better than the England football team in keeping the ball rolling, play for time and wait for the hooligans to become a nice audience again.
London wants to know what it future relationship with the EU will look like, before it triggers Article 50. This means that the result of the Brexit referendum are already disregarded. If the future relationship is not entirely to the satisfaction of London, does it mean that there will be no triggering of Article 50, and no Brexit?
Of course the future relationship of the EU with Britain will be less satisfactory than the existing one. UK cannot be outside the EU and its entities receiving EU funds. London cannot be in the EU’s internal market, if it intends to limit the freedom of movement. UK cannot have the cake and eat it.
Therefore my strong conviction is that there will be no Brexit. Nobody can leave the EU.