2 Responses to Will former Yugoslavia disintegrate even further? »»

1. Montenegro Open
   Comment by Montenegro Open | 2009/10/10 at 03:12:48

   Thank you Mr Gotev for the detailed explanation. I didn’t think before, about comparing the “voting power” of former Yugoslavia with separate states that exist nowadays. You are absolutely right that now when state borders mean nothing in United Europe, here in the Balkans, we still struggle for national self-determinations and drawing new ethnic borders.

   And all of that looks even worse, when we look back and see that former Yugoslavia could be already an EU member state, since 1995.

2. Ari Rusila
   Comment by Ari Rusila | 2009/10/10 at 16:01:37

   The author asks if disintegration of ex-Yugoslavia will stop. I have some doubts that this will not happen very soon. In Bosnia-Herzegovina the developments last year showed that it is not any more dispute between Serbs and Bosniaks, there was also serious dissension between Bosniaks and Croats. Last year alarming reports started to come about rise of radical Islam in Bosnia-Herzegovina (more e.g. in my article “Islamic terror …” – http://arirusila.wordpress.com/2008/10/13/islamic-terror-in-bosnia-follow-up-and-some-background/) and how Croatians in Bosnia felt that hey are victims of Bosnian Muslim terror. Also arms trafficking in Bosnia changed more alarming not because their selling in EU but because their planned use in Europe by radicals (more e.g. in my article “Radical Islamists arming their selves in Balkans“ – http://arirusila.wordpress.com/2008/12/01/radical-islamists-arming-their-selves-in-balkans/).

   Lack of national identity and multi-ethnic ideals and dispute between ethnic groups are main reason for possible collapse of Bosnia-Herzegovina. Can any country survive without some minimal mutual self-identification across its citizens as a whole? If the shared non-ethnic Bosnian identity is taking steps backwards does this not mean that this artificial western desk-drawer plan is doomed to fail? I am afraid so but maybe it is loss only for those top level designers not for local population.

   Kosovo is other case creating problems. After squandering billions of euros EU money to establish multi-ethnic standards was huge failure to EU. You remember slogan standards before status 2002 which only after few years transformed to form “standards and status” before its final version dropped the visionary standards out from table. First I was thinking that Kosovo is sliding to be a “failed state” now I am tending to the opinion that a “captured state” is better definition describing the leading role of organised crime tribes in Kosovo politics as well its share in economy.

   It’s said that The Balkans are a graveyard for foreign ambitions. This could be the “lessons learned” to both USA and EU. Some more sustainable solutions could be implemented in Western Balkans. The key question from my point of view is whether western Balkans really needs outside advice or not. The other option could be that instead to be the mastermind of Balkan policy the EU and USA should be facilitators for regional initiatives.

   Both in Bosnia-Herzegovina and Kosovo many local stakeholders see implemented rules illegitimate and foreign-imposed – and they are right. Internationally imposed solutions are not sustainable, to get real progress the inter-ethnic agreements must be made at local level.

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